Nigerian govt speaks on Fitch’s credit rating

The Federal Government says Fitch Ratings’ determination to revise Nigeria’s credit rating outlook from Stable to Positive displays progress in financial reforms, international alternate market changes and efforts to strengthen the nation’s exterior place.

Fitch introduced the revision on 9 October, retaining Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at ‘B’.

In an announcement issued on Saturday, the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, mentioned Fitch cited elevated international alternate reserves, easing inflation and improved financial prospects among the many components supporting the outlook revision.

According to the minister, Nigeria’s gross international alternate reserves rose to $54.9 billion as of 25 September 2026, from $32 billion in mid-April 2024.

He attributed the rise to extra formalised international alternate transactions, portfolio inflows, increased exports and remittances.

Fitch additionally projected that Nigeria would file a present account surplus equal to six.4 per cent of gross home product in 2026.

Economic development and inflation

The rankings company projected that Nigeria’s actual gross home product would develop by 4.3 per cent in 2026, in contrast with 4 per cent in 2025, with development remaining above 4 per cent in 2027 and 2028.

Fitch expects non-oil actions to stay the principle driver of financial enlargement.

The projection comes as Nigeria’s financial system recorded development of 4.43 per cent year-on-year within the second quarter of 2026, in response to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The determine was increased than the three.89 per cent recorded within the first quarter of 2026 and the 4.23 per cent recorded within the corresponding quarter of 2025.

The World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update projected common annual financial development of 4.4 per cent between 2026 and 2028, figuring out companies and agriculture among the many contributors to financial exercise.

On inflation, Fitch projected a median charge of 15.4 per cent in 2026, lower than half the extent recorded in 2024.

The NBS reported that Nigeria’s headline inflation charge eased marginally to fifteen.39 per cent in August 2026, from 15.43 per cent in July.

The figures present latest context for Fitch’s evaluation of inflation, though the company’s annual common forecast is totally different from the month-to-month inflation charge reported by the NBS.

Reserves, oil manufacturing and public debt

Fitch additionally famous developments in Nigeria’s oil sector, together with crude oil manufacturing assembly the nation’s OPEC goal of 1.5 million barrels per day from May 2026.

Mr Oyedele mentioned elevated home refining was serving to to cut back gas imports and international alternate demand.

On public funds, Fitch expects Nigeria’s tax reforms to extend non-oil income relative to the dimensions of the financial system.

The company projected that normal authorities debt would common 32 per cent of GDP between 2026 and 2028, beneath the median of 56 per cent for international locations with a ‘B’ rating.

Fitch additionally highlighted Nigeria’s home debt market and the banking sector recapitalisation train, noting that many banks had capital adequacy ratios above 20 per cent.

However, the company recognized persistent challenges, together with inflation remaining above ranges in peer international locations, authorities income being low relative to the dimensions of the financial system, and curiosity funds accounting for a excessive proportion of presidency income.

The minister mentioned the federal authorities would proceed implementing reforms geared toward growing income, bettering spending effectivity, strengthening debt administration and supporting non-oil financial development.

Other rating developments

The Fitch determination follows different developments in Nigeria’s worldwide credit assessments.

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In May 2026, S&P Global Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s credit rating from ‘B-’ to ‘B’. In August, Moody’s revised its outlook on Nigeria to Positive whereas retaining its ‘B3’ rating.

Mr Oyedele famous that the federal government’s medium-term goal remained to enhance Nigeria’s credit standing and work in direction of investment-grade standing.

He mentioned the administration would proceed to focus on international alternate market reforms, tax income mobilisation, fiscal governance, extra environment friendly public spending and development in non-oil sectors.

The minister mentioned its broader goal was to “translate economic reforms into jobs, food security, support for small businesses and improved living standards”.