KABIR ADAMU urges the federal government to ascertain a clear framework for safety performances
On October 1, 2026 President Bola Ahmed Tinubu delivered a nationwide speech, the place he reviewed his administration’s reform trajectory and centered totally on transitioning from emergency financial reforms to delivering shared and widespread prosperity for Nigerians. The speech was principally about shifting Nigeria from an “age of reform” into an “age of prosperity.” The speech represents a notable change in the best way the Tinubu administration publicly frames Nigeria’s safety problem. The language of “national security emergency” that dominated the federal government’s messaging in late 2025 has given option to a story during which safety is more and more being introduced as an enabler of financial productiveness and prosperity.
This shift is critical. On November 26, 2025, President Tinubu declared a nationwide safety emergency, authorised further recruitment into the Armed Forces and directed the police to recruit one other 20,000 officers, bringing the deliberate recruitment to 50,000. He additionally ordered the deployment of skilled forest guards and referred to as for stronger cooperation between federal and state authorities.
Seven months later, in his June 12, 2026 Democracy Day deal with, safety remained an instantaneous nationwide concern. Tinubu linked democracy on to safety, declaring that “democracy without security is not solid enough.” He highlighted the kidnapping of kids in Oyo and Borno, the recruitment of greater than 50,000 law enforcement officials and hundreds of navy personnel, and the 5.41 trillion allocation for defence and safety within the 2026 Budget. In subsequent messages and actions, he progressed the state police effort and the creation of further navy divisions in addition to the stocking of navy gear repositories.
But in his October 1, 2026 Independence Day deal with, the President adopted a markedly totally different emphasis. Security was acknowledged, however largely as a situation mandatory for financial exercise, most clearly in his imaginative and prescient of a Nigeria the place farmers can domesticate their land safely, produce at decrease value and earn an honest return.
That evolution deserves nearer examination. The President didn’t say that Nigeria’s safety disaster had been resolved. Nor did he announce a brand new safety operation, a brand new safety emergency, or a brand new main safety coverage. Instead, insecurity appeared inside a broader historic reflection on Nigeria’s expertise of warfare, financial crises, navy rule, political upheaval and insecurity. He additionally paid tribute to members of the Armed Forces and different safety personnel who put themselves in hurt’s option to defend residents. This distinction issues considerably. The absence of an in depth safety evaluation or attribution within the President’s speech shouldn’t be interpreted as proof that the safety state of affairs has develop into insignificant. Rather, the President seems to have intentionally positioned safety inside a broader prosperity narrative.
The development is putting. In November 2025, safety was framed as an emergency requiring mobilisation. In June 2026, safety was framed as an energetic menace to democratic life and nationwide stability, accompanied by operational claims and important useful resource commitments. In October 2026 safety was framed primarily as an enabler of prosperity, significantly by agriculture, funding and productive financial exercise.
This isn’t essentially a contradiction. It could characterize an try to maneuver from disaster response in direction of normalisation and improvement. But such a transition ought to be supported by proof. The administration’s personal 2026 Budget offers an vital normal towards which this transition will be assessed. The Budget allotted 5.41 trillion to defence and safety and explicitly acknowledged that safety funding can be accompanied by “clear accountability for outcomes.” It additionally recognized modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence-driven policing, joint operations, border safety, technology-enabled surveillance, community-based peacebuilding and battle prevention as priorities.
The President additionally described the federal government as “resetting the national security architecture” and establishing a brand new nationwide counter-terrorism doctrine primarily based on unified command, intelligence, neighborhood stability and counterinsurgency. This creates an vital coverage obligation: Nigerians ought to more and more have the ability to see what these investments are producing.
This shift has a number of strategic implications. The central query for Nigeria isn’t how a lot the federal government spends on safety or what number of personnel are recruited however whether or not these investments produce a measurable safety dividend. That dividend ought to be seen in safer communities, lowered kidnapping and terrorism, improved safety of faculties and significant infrastructure, safer agricultural areas, higher intelligence outcomes and quicker responses to rising threats.
The President’s October 1 emphasis on farmers is especially vital. Food safety and agricultural productiveness can’t increase sustainably the place farmers are unable to entry their land safely. Roads, markets, transport corridors and rural communities require a safety atmosphere that permits financial exercise to happen predictably. Security and prosperity are subsequently mutually reinforcing.
The administration’s personal messaging more and more recognises this nexus. In June 2026, the Minister of Information and National Orientation, Mohammed Idris Malagi equally argued that shared and inclusive financial development is a part of the enduring answer to Nigeria’s safety challenges. But the connection additionally runs in the wrong way: persistent unemployment, weak native governance, poverty, illicit economies, unresolved communal grievances and ineffective justice techniques can proceed to generate insecurity. This means Nigeria can’t afford to interpret financial improvement as an alternative to safety reform.
The most vital mandatory final result from the October 1 Presidential speech ought to be a public security-performance scorecard. The November 2025 emergency declaration generated main expectations. The December 2025 Budget dedicated substantial assets. The June 2026 deal with reported operational progress. By October 2026, a number of months earlier than nationwide elections, Nigerians are more and more asking what measurable distinction have these interventions produced from a governance and accountability perspective. Nigerians wish to know if kidnapping declined nationally and in the principle affected corridors and places, whether or not terrorist teams are dropping territorial and operational capability?
Has intelligence-sharing between businesses improved? Has the brand new safety structure lowered institutional duplication? Are farmers returning to beforehand inaccessible agricultural areas? Are faculties and significant infrastructure demonstrably safer? Has police recruitment translated into efficient neighborhood policing? Are safety businesses changing intelligence into preventive motion? Are communities reporting better confidence in state safety establishments? Is elevated expenditure producing proportionate enhancements in public security? These questions, of safety governance and accountability, are what Nigerians are asking and that they wish to be answered.
To present solutions to this questions and quench Nigerian’s rising demand for solutions to the nation’s nationwide safety questions, first, the federal government ought to set up a clear framework for exhibiting safety performances overlaying terrorism, kidnapping, banditry, communal violence, important infrastructure safety, response instances, intelligence outcomes, and public confidence by publishing a quarterly and annual National Security Performance Scorecard. Alongside this, safety efficiency ought to be assessed in tandem with financial metrics reminiscent of agricultural output, market entry, transport exercise, funding, and employment in beforehand insecure areas.
Furthermore, the subsequent section of Nigeria’s safety technique should concentrate on strengthening the intelligence-to-action cycle by better emphasis on intelligence fusion, early warning, evaluation, accelerating early response capabilities and disruption quite than relying merely on response after assaults happen. To make this all-of-government method measurable, federal, state, and native authorities require clearly outlined duties, coordination mechanisms, and final result indicators, as accountability for outcomes turns into significant solely when duties are clearly identifiable.
Finally, increasing the non-kinetic safety structure stays essential. While navy functionality is crucial, attaining sustainable safety additionally requires functioning justice techniques, proactive battle prevention, efficient native governance, steady neighborhood engagement, financial alternative, and sturdy safety for weak populations. A duty that the federal and subnational governments should collectively shoulder.
The President’s October 1, 2026 speech successfully locations prosperity on the centre of the nationwide agenda. For that prosperity to be credible, Nigeria now must show the safety dividend that makes it potential. The subsequent section ought to subsequently be about demonstrating safety outcomes.
Dr. Adamu is the Managing Director of Beacon Security and Innovations Limited.
