By Mobolaji Sanusi
“It’s not the voting that’s democracy; it’s the counting.”
—-Tom Stoppard(1937-2005).
The first poll of the 2027 common election is now lower than 100 days away, and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is utilizing each alternative to restate its preparedness to organise a reputable election subsequent 12 months.
On two separate events this week — on the strategic workshop organised in collaboration with the Nigerian Guild of Editors and on the World Press Conference it convened, its Chairman, Professor Joash Amupitan, personally reiterated to a listening viewers and a sceptical public the Commission’s readiness for the polls. A reputable election, and nothing much less, is all that thousands and thousands of Nigerians count on from the INEC helmsman in what’s his first main task.
Organising common elections in a diversely multi-ethnic and multi-religious nation of over 220 million folks like ours can’t be described as a tea celebration. A cursory have a look at INEC’s launched operational knowledge confirms this. The Commission’s operations cowl 176,846 polling items, 8,838 Registration Area Centres in 36 states plus the FCT, and 774 native authorities places of work throughout the nation. Its different logistical necessities embody 57,000 new Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) gadgets and greater than 100,000 automobiles and 4,000 boats for the motion of personnel and election supplies.
This appears to be like herculean however not insurmountable with regular preparation and sincerity of objective on the a part of the Commission’s management. With lower than 100 days to the primary poll, Amupitan, throughout his international media briefing, assured the nation and the worldwide neighborhood of INEC’s “total commitment to neutrality, operational excellence, and the sacred integrity of the ballot box.”
His voice is loud sufficient to be heard, and till his promise turns into actuality, it’s only honest to provide him the advantage of the doubt.
But a specific facet of Amupitan’s speech that caught yours sincerely’s consideration was his revelation that the nationwide voter register now stands at 103,428,715. According to him, this follows the completion of the three phases of the Continuous Voter Registration (CVR) train, which produced an extra 10,772,421 recent registrations. This may cautiously be interpreted as a mirrored image of Nigerians’ dedication to performing their civic duty in 2027, though the truth of the 2023 elections suggests in any other case.
Expectedly, Lagos, the previous federal capital, leads with 7,488,633 registered voters, adopted by Kano with 6,570,276 and Kaduna with 4,662,640. Katsina has 3,876,051 voters, Rivers has 3,736,434, Oyo has 3,588,111, (*103*) has 3,525,988, Benue has 3,057,225, Ogun has 3,037,981 and Bauchi has 3,012,547.
At the underside of the desk are Ekiti, Bayelsa and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) with 1,055,708, 1,200,691 and 1,732,043 voters, respectively. The demographic breakdown reveals that male voters represent 53.53 million, representing 51.75 %, whereas feminine voters account for 49.90 million, representing 48.25 %. Persons with Disabilities (PWDs) captured within the register, in response to INEC, quantity to 232,658.
Obviously, these prime ten states with the very best voter registration will stay the focal factors of the battle for votes between the ruling and opposition events. Curiously, 5 of the ten are from the northern a part of the nation, and the implication of this can’t be misplaced on the politically discerning. Also, Lagos main different states in voter numbers is a reminder that the 2006 nationwide inhabitants census is now out of date, whereas additionally bringing to the fore the long-overdue name to accord the Centre of Excellence a particular standing within the federation.
The vital function of a reputable voter register in any election can’t be ignored, which is why yours sincerely is especially desirous about it. A well-prepared voter register serves as a verification instrument for figuring out eligible voters in an effort to forestall a number of voting or impersonation on election day. It additionally helps political events to determine eligibility for nomination and to keep up a reputable membership register. It additional aids within the willpower of polling unit areas, amongst different issues. In view of all this, one would presuppose that INEC, earlier than saying the voter registration figures, should have achieved the requisite due diligence that’s the hallmark of a reputable register. Amupitan shouldn’t be discovered wanting on this regard.
More importantly, it’s essential to interrogate why, regardless of excessive voter registration figures, turnout on election day has hitherto remained notably low. For occasion, the 2023 register had 93.5 million voters, however turnout was put at 27 %, believed to be the bottom ever recorded for a presidential election on this Fourth Republic. President Bola Tinubu, GCFR, of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who gained the election, polled 8,794,726 votes, or 36.61 % of the full votes solid. Atiku Abubakar of the PDP polled 6,984,520 votes, or 29.07 %, whereas Peter Obi of the Labour Party scored 6,101,533 votes, or 25.4 %. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the NNPP scored 1,496,687 votes, representing 6.23 % of the full votes solid.
This low turnout won’t be unconnected to the shenanigans that preceded the 2023 elections, the place foot troopers of former President Muhammadu Buhari did all the things to frustrate the needs of eligible voters by creating critical socio-economic distortions with dire penalties.
Even in 2015, whole voter turnout was 43.65 %. That 12 months, in response to INEC, there have been 68,833,476 registered voters.
Muhammadu Buhari scored 15,424,921 votes, amounting to 53.96 %, whereas Goodluck Jonathan scored 12,853,162 votes, amounting to 44.96 %. This end result was achieved largely as a result of opposition events got here collectively to wrest energy from the then-ruling PDP beneath President Jonathan. Genuine voter curiosity was evident within the declared outcomes. Can we count on a re-enactment of this in 2027? This is critically unsure as a result of most eligible Nigerians consider that their votes is not going to depend. Nigerians are additionally extra involved about easy methods to climate the storm of financial hardship presently ravaging the nation right now.
Hitherto, electoral information present that the very best voter turnout of 69.1 % recorded throughout former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s second-term re-election in April 2003 can’t be relied upon as a result of the election itself, carried out beneath Professor Maurice Iwu as INEC Chairman, was replete with rigging, violence and electoral fraud. Obasanjo’s handpicked successor, the late President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua, failed the identical electoral integrity check in 2007. Yar’Adua was adjudged to have recorded an identical 69.1 % turnout — a end result that he himself publicly acknowledged to be flawed. So, these two information are extremely unreliable and discredited.
The excessive voter registration figures recorded by INEC beneath Amupitan are fairly inspiring, however will they translate into large turnout on election day? Will eligible Nigerians prove in massive numbers to let their votes converse for them? The turnout at political rallies, campaigns and marches has proved unreliable, judging by antecedents. We have seen a number of cases throughout the federation of orchestrated five-million-man marches for various high-profile candidates that evaporated to lower than 500,000 votes on election day.
This identical time-wasting political technique by prime politicians and their supporters has led to the wastage of lots of of thousands and thousands of naira by way of hiring crowds for such deceptive rallies, marches and campaigns, solely to fall flat in securing anticipated votes on election day. Some of those politicians are already enmeshed in such expensive however pointless political advertising in the meanwhile. These politicians and their supporters study nothing from historical past.
Yiaga Africa’s National Voting Intentions Survey, NVIS 3.0, in its just lately launched report titled: “Willing but Wary: How Nigerians Intend to Vote in 2027,” gave this concern a scientific dimension. It indicated that Nigerians prepared to vote have solely a imprecise dedication, with the proportion of these “very likely” to vote dropping from 52% to 47%. It additional said clearly that solely 41% are prone to vote and are very sure of their alternative. If this report is certainly true, it already makes mincemeat of the freshly compiled INEC voter register relating to voter turnout. Indeed, the voters’ check of will lies forward because the 2027 common election attracts nearer.
The remaining questions: Come 2027, can the real over-50 % voter turnout of 2015 be replicated? If the approaching collectively of the opposition 11 years in the past made it potential, can the mass defection of governors to the ruling APC re-enact that credible 2015 turnout feat? Are the defectors honest with the ruling celebration or simply in search of non permanent political refuge from the EFCC nightmare? The reply to particularly the second query is difficult as a result of the circumstances of the 2 intervals are usually not the identical. I relaxation my case for this week.
•Sanusi, former MD/CEO of Lagos State Signage and Advertisement Agency, is presently Managing Partner at AMS RELIABLE SOLICITORS. (WhatsApp solely: 07011117777).
