Funmi Ogundare
The Publisher of Politico.ng, beneath the Political Intelligence Group, Lai Omotola, Thursday, projected President Bola Ahmed Tinubu as sustaining a slim lead over former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar forward of the 2027 basic election.
Omotola, who disclosed this whereas presenting the third version of his November 2026 electoral map, in Lagos, defined that the presidential contest was changing into more and more aggressive, with altering voter preferences and the rising affect of younger Nigerians anticipated to form the result.
He projected that Obi would come second, whereas Atiku would occupy the third place, though the margin separating the three main contenders remained slim.
According to him, the political panorama has modified considerably, making it troublesome for political events to depend on earlier electoral methods and voting patterns.
He warned that politicians who approached the 2027 election with a business-as-usual mentality risked defeat.
“There are about 68 million new voters that will be voting for the first time in the 2027 elections, and the majority of these voters are youths. Unlike before, young people between the ages of 18 and 49 will dominate the election,” he said.
Omotola additionally predicted that the 2027 basic election might document the best voter turnout in Nigeria’s electoral historical past, projecting participation of about 40 per cent, in contrast with the 29 per cent recorded within the final election.
In his state-by-state projection, he predicted that the All Progressives Congress (APC) would win 13 states, the New Democratic Congress (NDC) 13 states and the African Democratic Congress (ADC) 11 states.
He projected that the APC would dominate the South-west and North-central areas, whereas the NDC would win all states within the South-east and South-south, in addition to Kano State and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).
The ADC, in accordance with him, would win states within the North-east and North-west, besides Kano and Zamfara States.
He, nonetheless, harassed that the projections have been primarily based on the belief that the 2027 elections can be free and truthful.
Reviewing political developments in October, Omotola recognized the graduation of campaigns by the three main events, the controversy surrounding the preliminary voters’ register launched by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), and renewed debate over gas subsidy as developments that would affect the electoral panorama.
He additionally cited the APC’s inaugural marketing campaign in Kaduna, led by Tinubu, and Atiku’s proposal for the restoration of gas subsidy as vital political and financial developments in the course of the interval.
Omotola expressed concern over the controversy surrounding the preliminary voters’ register, which he stated had been affected by the inclusion of AI-generated names.
He additional noticed that opposition events have been encountering stiff resistance of their marketing campaign actions, whereas inner disagreements inside the APC might have an effect on its electoral fortunes.
According to him, these developments might affect the three events in another way as political actions intensify forward of the 2027 polls.
Omotola additionally recognized political developments inside opposition events and the authorized challenges confronting them as components able to altering the electoral projections earlier than the election.
On the affect of faith within the 2027 election, the writer stated it remained a major issue, notably in northern Nigeria, the place non secular issues continued to affect voter behaviour.
He interpreted Tinubu’s resolution to retain his Muslim-Muslim ticket and his latest go to to Saudi Arabia as a part of efforts to strengthen his non secular credentials and enchantment to northern voters.
He added that the north would play a decisive function in figuring out the result of the presidential election, noting that the competition would additionally check whether or not the area might keep a united political place or develop into more and more divided.
Omotola, nonetheless, cautioned that the electoral projections might change as political alignments, authorized developments and marketing campaign actions unfold.
He urged political events, INEC and different stakeholders to prioritise peaceable, free and credible elections, describing the forthcoming ballot as a defining second for Nigeria’s democracy.
“This will be a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy, and the country will be a better place for it,” he stated.
