NAF 931 Was A Forgiving ‘Bird’

I’m afraid of flying, but I by no means get uninterested in listening to pilots speak about it. I’ve some pilot pals, and every time they describe what it’s wish to fly these large birds, I pay attention like a toddler at bedtime. Think about it: a machine weighing many tonnes, cruising greater than 30,000 ft above the bottom, held up by aerodynamics. It is astonishing, and more often than not it’s protected. When it goes flawed, the worth is normally expensive. Air journey is pleasurable. But when issues go flawed, it brings a lot grief, except the plane chooses to be forgiving, within the sense that no life is misplaced.

The ATR 42-500MP

NAF 931 crashed on 5 October 2026. It was an ATR 42-500MP, the maritime patrol model of the ATR 42, a twin-turboprop constructed by Avions de Transport Régional (ATR) in Blagnac, France. The ATR 42 was designed as a cost-effective, high-wing, short-haul regional airliner. It first flew in 1984 and was licensed in 1985, and the improved -500 collection adopted within the mid-Nineteen Nineties with new engines and six-bladed propellers. The army model, marketed because the ATR 42MP Surveyor, got here later, constructed for patrol, surveillance and transport duties. NAF 931 was certainly one of them.

Two of them, NAF 930 and NAF 931, have been delivered to the Nigerian Air Force in 2009 and 2010, whereas the remainder went to Italian safety companies. As far as out there info reveals, none of this variant had been concerned in an accident till NAF 931 went down within the swamps of Igbokoda, in Ondo State. It is that this stellar monitor report that explains why the mishap raised a lot curiosity, and why public commentary has been so intense.

A forgiving chicken

In certainly one of my quite a few interactions with a pilot pal who has piloted NAF 931 in instances previous, he described the plane as a forgiving chicken as a result of its design provides pilots additional leeway and time to react when dealing with errors, environmental challenges, or sudden conditions happen attributable to its high-wing stability, low stall pace, mild dealing with, excessive power-to-weight ratio, and rugged touchdown gear.

This was how he defined it: Picture a affected person driving teacher who enables you to make a small mistake, then provides you simply sufficient time to place it proper earlier than an accident happens. According to him, that was the attribute of NAF 931. Its wings sit excessive on the fuselage, so the physique hangs beneath them like a pendulum, and when a gust rocks the plane, it swings itself again in direction of stage. If the pace drops too low, it doesn’t wait till the final second to complain. Lights, sounds and a trembling management column warn the crew early sufficient to behave. If an strategy goes flawed, or the wind turns nasty close to the runway, the engines reply rapidly and the pilot can energy up and go round. And if a touchdown is available in arduous, or a correction comes late, its sturdy undercarriage takes the knock which may break a extra delicate plane. That is why my pal calls it a forgiving chicken.

What occurred to NAF 931?

What occurred to NAF 931? I’ve learn a number of commentaries round as traditional. But in my view, what introduced NAF 931 down will stay unknown till the engines and black field are discovered. The pilot and co-pilot have been among the many finest within the Air Force fleet. This a lot was confirmed by the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke. Rumours in regards to the state of the plane are additionally circulating, as they all the time do after a loss like this. It is truthful for inquiries to be requested, together with about upkeep, which has lengthy been a priority in our nation. But I’ll neither settle for nor dismiss any concept about what occurred to NAF 931 till the report of the investigation is made public.

Perhaps, on that fateful flight, NAF 931 selected to be unforgiving. Military sources credit score it with altering the steadiness within the struggle towards militancy and piracy within the Niger Delta. For years, militants, pipeline vandals, oil thieves, unlawful bunkerers, pirates and unlawful refiners had labored in locations the federal government couldn’t see. The plane gave the federal government eyes. From the air, it discovered these hidden camps and refining websites and handed their areas to the bottom forces and strike plane, who then destroyed them.

Grief and questions

I share within the grief of the family members of the victims. It stays a loss too many. May the souls of the departed relaxation in peace (Amen). When the Chief of Air Staff, Air Marshal Sunday Kelvin Aneke visited the crash web site, he promised a complete investigation into the unlucky incident. Even although he placed on a courageous face, he seemed to me like a person who wished to ask the reporters’ questions himself, moderately than reply them. He was devastated, like many Nigerians who wish to know what went flawed with NAF 931.

I’m conscious that the Air Force instituted a Group Personal Accident Insurance Policy for its personnel in January 2024, overlaying incapacity or dying throughout army operations or every other type of accident. But there may be little, if any, coverage that institutionalises platforms that go down within the line of responsibility. Platforms like NAF 466, NAF 201 and NAF 203 are remembered, if in any respect, solely by their serial numbers.

As investigations proceed, there’s a broader institutional lesson for our defence authorities. The Air Force ought to think about establishing a proper coverage to immortalise platforms like NAF 931 that went down within the line of responsibility. This might take the type of erecting static fashions at key air bases, accompanied by curated operational archives detailing their service years, theatres of deployment and fight breakthroughs.

Counting shouldn’t be measuring

I’ve learn a few commentaries on air accidents involving NAF platforms. Is the Nigerian Air Force actually shedding plane at an alarming fee? The declare is repeated much more typically than it’s measured. It creates a distorted image as a result of it ignores the variety of sorties NAF platforms fly across the nation every single day, throughout a number of theatres of operations. This is why public commentary round it have to be circumspect. Aircraft are supposed to fly, and flying carries inherent threat.

Aviation security is judged by charges, akin to severe accidents per 100,000 flying hours, not by headlines. Even the United States Air Force, considered one of many most secure on the earth, as soon as recorded 35 severe mishaps and misplaced 19 manned plane in a single 12 months. A naked depend means little with out the hours flown. This is to not make a case for the Nigerian Air Force; moderately, it’s a name for circumspection till the info are established.

NAF 931 and the 25 souls

NAF 931 (2010–2026) was a forgiving chicken. Its tour of responsibility was exceptional. It went down within the swamps of Igbokoda with 25 souls. When a army asset is misplaced, it’s a nationwide loss. When lives are misplaced with it, it turns into a nationwide tragedy. May the 25 souls relaxation in peace. NAF 931 forgave many a mistake in its time, and will probably be remembered for that. Adieu, NAF 931, the forgiving chicken.

– Ocheja holds twin PhDs: Military History from the Nigerian Defence Academy, and Leadership and Public Policy from the University of Abuja. He specialises within the security-development nexus in Nigeria and the Sahel.