By mid-morning in lots of Nigerian cities, merchants sit beneath umbrellas, industrial motorcyclists seek for shade, and school rooms change into more and more uncomfortable as temperatures rise.
The warmth has change into a each day subject of dialog, with some attributing it to ozone layer depletion and others questioning whether or not the climate is turning into unusually excessive.
However, scientists warn of one other climate phenomenon that would intensify warmth and disrupt climate patterns worldwide: El Niño.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) says the phenomenon is strengthening and will change into exceptionally intense in direction of the top of 2026, with penalties extending into 2027.
Meanwhile, a report by the University of Chicago’s Climate Impact Lab tasks that Nigeria may report 31,400 further heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027.
The estimate raises questions on what El Niño means for Nigerians, whether or not the projected deaths are inevitable and the way people and communities can scale back their dangers.
Nigeria’s expertise with excessive climate
Nigeria is not any stranger to climate-related emergencies.
From devastating floods which have displaced communities and destroyed livelihoods to recurring droughts within the north, the nation has repeatedly skilled the human and financial prices of utmost climate.
The 2022 floods, which affected tens of millions of individuals throughout the nation, exposed the vulnerability of houses, farms, roads and important companies.
Nigeria additionally faces recurring droughts in its northern areas, the place extended dry spells threaten water availability, agricultural manufacturing and livestock.
These experiences present necessary context for the newest warning about El Niño. The concern shouldn’t be that the phenomenon will essentially reproduce earlier disasters, however that it may add to current climate dangers, notably if excessive warmth coincides with unreliable electrical energy, restricted entry to protected water and overstretched well being companies.
For a rustic already grappling with these challenges, the query is whether or not classes from earlier emergencies can translate into higher preparation for the dangers forward.
What is El Niño?
El Niño, which means “little boy” in Spanish, is a pure climate phenomenon characterised by warmer-than-average sea floor temperatures within the central and jap tropical Pacific Ocean. This warming alters atmospheric circulation and moisture patterns, influencing climate circumstances in several components of the world.
Although it begins within the Pacific Ocean, its results will be felt globally. Changes in atmospheric circulation can enhance the probability of unusually excessive temperatures in some areas, drought in others and heavier rainfall elsewhere.
El Niño is a part of a broader climate cycle often known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has three phases: El Niño, La Niña and impartial circumstances.
La Niña is related to cooler-than-average sea floor temperatures in the identical area of the Pacific, whereas impartial circumstances happen when neither warming nor cooling dominates.
The phenomenon happens naturally, sometimes growing each two to seven years. Individual occasions usually last as long as 18 months, though their length and depth differ.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate sample and may quickly amplify international temperatures, including to the warming already brought on by international warming.
The ozone layer is a separate situation. It absorbs a lot of the solar’s dangerous ultraviolet radiation, however its depletion doesn’t clarify the present El Niño phenomenon.
Why is El Niño attracting consideration now?
The present El Niño has attracted international concern as a result of scientists count on it to strengthen considerably within the coming months.
According to the WMO’s newest ENSO update, the phenomenon is firmly established and forecast to strengthen in direction of the top of 2026 earlier than peaking, with potential impacts extending into early 2027.
The concern has intensified following the publication of the “Climate Impact Lab’s report, 451,000 at Risk: Where Action Can Save Lives During the Super El Niño.”
The report estimates that 451,000 further heat-related deaths may happen globally between June 2026 and February 2027 in contrast with a median 12 months.
Nigeria was recognized as one of many international locations going through the best estimated mortality burdens, with 31,400 further heat-related deaths projected between September 2026 and February 2027.
However, these figures are projections, not a forecast of an inevitable loss of life toll. They estimate the extra deaths that would happen below the anticipated temperature circumstances in contrast with historic averages. The researchers additionally argue that early intervention may considerably scale back the projected affect.
How may El Niño have an effect on Nigeria?
Although El Niño develops within the Pacific Ocean, earlier occasions have demonstrated that it might affect climate circumstances throughout Africa, together with West Africa. However, its results in Nigeria will not be at all times uniform.
Weather patterns differ throughout the nation’s arid northern states, central savannah areas and humid southern shoreline. Consequently, one space might expertise unusually dry circumstances whereas one other information above-normal rainfall.
Nigeria’s climate is influenced by a number of interacting programs, together with the West African monsoon, circumstances over the Atlantic Ocean and regional atmospheric circulation. These components decide when and the place rainfall happens, how lengthy dry spells final and the way temperatures change all year long.
El Niño alone doesn’t imply Nigeria will expertise a nationwide drought, flooding, or an unprecedented heatwave. Its results rely on how the phenomenon interacts with native weather conditions, making nationwide and state-level forecasts important.
Nevertheless, the projected enhance in warmth presents a severe concern.
For many Nigerians, extended excessive temperatures may make each day life more and more tough, notably in cities already scuffling with unreliable electrical energy, crowded housing and insufficient city planning.
Buildings, roads and concrete surfaces soak up warmth throughout the day and launch it slowly at night time, stopping temperatures from falling considerably after sundown. This can enhance warmth stress, particularly amongst individuals who work outside or reside in poorly ventilated houses.
Extreme warmth additionally increases the danger of dehydration, warmth exhaustion and heatstroke. It may irritate current circumstances, together with cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney ailments.
Agriculture may additionally face challenges.
Prolonged dry spells might reduce soil moisture, decrease crop yields and place further stress on livestock and water assets. For households already scuffling with excessive meals costs, lowered agricultural manufacturing may worsen meals insecurity.
Where heavier rainfall occurs, flooding might injury houses, roads and farmland, contaminate water provides and disrupt entry to healthcare and different important companies.
The WMO has emphasised the significance of regional and nationwide forecasts as a result of seasonal outlooks point out the probability of broader circumstances reasonably than predict particular person climate occasions.
Is Nigeria ready?
The reply is sophisticated.
Nigeria has laid the groundwork for climate-related well being emergencies.
In 2025, the Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare published the nation’s first Climate Change and Health National Adaptation Plan (2025–2030), which seeks to strengthen illness surveillance, well being amenities and emergency preparedness.
The nation additionally has a broader National Adaptation Plan, whereas the Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) points seasonal forecasts to information planning.
However, having insurance policies in place doesn’t essentially imply persons are adequately protected when excessive warmth strikes. Nigeria’s electrical energy and healthcare infrastructure reveal among the gaps.
A 2025 BudgIT assessment of 5,099 major healthcare amenities discovered that solely about 51 per cent had electrical energy, whereas 38 per cent lacked entry to water. Shortages of healthcare staff additional complicate efforts to answer elevated demand throughout climate-related emergencies.
These shortcomings change into notably necessary throughout extended warmth.
Electricity helps well being amenities preserve important companies and allows households to make use of followers and different cooling choices. Without dependable and inexpensive energy, each healthcare suppliers and residents have fewer methods to deal with rising temperatures.
A PREMIUM TIMES report printed on 18 October titled, ‘Stalled wind farm project in Katsina typifies Nigeria’s battle to construct renewable-energy business,’ illustrates the broader problem of turning vitality plans into reliable electrical energy.
The report examined the 10-megawatt Lambar-Rimi wind farm in Katsina State, initiated by the state authorities in 2005 and brought over by the federal authorities in 2007.
A contract awarded to French firm Vergnet S.A. in 2010 supplied for the set up of 37 generators inside 24 months. Although a 2017 authorities finances implementation report described the venture as about 95 per cent full, the power remained stalled years later.
The relevance to El Niño shouldn’t be that the stalled wind farm brought about excessive warmth, however that it demonstrates the issue of delivering the infrastructure wanted to assist communities face up to its results. A venture will be funded, contracted and declared practically full with out offering the electrical energy houses, companies and well being amenities want.
How can Nigerians shield themselves?
Although people can’t stop El Niño, they’ll take sensible steps to scale back their publicity to excessive warmth and different weather-related hazards.
During durations of excessive temperatures, folks ought to drink water frequently, put on light-weight clothes and search shade or a cool, well-ventilated place every time doable. Where work preparations allow, strenuous outside actions needs to be lowered throughout the hottest components of the day.
Employers also needs to present entry to consuming water, relaxation breaks and shade for staff uncovered to extended warmth. Families ought to pay explicit consideration to youngsters, older kinfolk and individuals who might battle to recognise or reply to heat-related sickness.
Headaches, dizziness, weak point and nausea might point out warmth exhaustion. Confusion, seizures or lack of consciousness following warmth publicity can sign heatstroke, a medical emergency requiring fast medical help.
Where water shortages happen, households ought to retailer consuming water in clear, lined containers and comply with public well being recommendation on making unsafe water protected to drink. Water conservation is necessary, but it surely mustn’t come on the expense of consuming, meals preparation and fundamental hygiene.
In areas the place heavy rainfall or flooding is forecast, residents ought to take note of official warnings, maintain drainage channels clear the place it’s protected to take action and keep away from strolling or driving by way of floodwater. Floodwater might conceal open drains and different hazards, and it might be contaminated. People ought to transfer to safer areas when authorities advise evacuation.
Households may put together for extreme climate by maintaining important medicines, emergency contact particulars, necessary paperwork and charged cellphones accessible. Residents ought to report harmful circumstances to the suitable authorities and keep away from counting on unverified social media messages for details about imminent hazards.
Most importantly, Nigerians ought to comply with native forecasts reasonably than interpret a worldwide El Niño warning as a prediction that each group will face the identical circumstances.
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