I left Nigeria two weeks in the past and inside these previous 14 days, there have been 4 consequential elections throughout South America, Europe, Asia and North America. In Serbia on 25 October, the scholars who began a nationwide protest two years in the past to demand accountability, drew up an inventory of candidates, mobilised the voters and defeated President Aleksandar Vučić who has been in energy for the final 12 years. Two days later (27 October) in Israel, the much-awaited parliamentary election produced a cliffhanger consequence that leaves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu totally pissed off since there could also be no authorities and not using a take care of the Arab events whose membership within the Knesset has virtually doubled. Then in an unprecedented political turn-around in Brazil on 30 October, the 81-year-old incumbent President Lula da Silva secured a fourth time period with a margin of 4.43 million votes regardless of trailing within the first spherical by 2.2 million votes. Finally, within the United States on Tuesday, Democrats gained 5 governorship seats and received each the Senate and House, firmly taking management of Congress with shock victories in a number of Republican strongholds that embody Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and Kansas. Remarkably, Kansas final elected a Democrat 94 years in the past!
I’m at present within the U.S. the place pundits are nonetheless making an attempt to come back to phrases with the political implications of the large ‘Blue Tsunami’ of Tuesday evening. Several gender and ethno-religious data had been additionally damaged by the Democrats such that House Minority Leader, Hakeem Jeffries, is poised to change into the primary Black Speaker in January. So overwhelming is the character of the Democratic victory that President Donald Trump couldn’t however concede to a defeat that many describe as a repudiation of his (international and home) coverage selections and a referendum on his stewardship. Trump, of course, has attributed the outcomes to the truth that he was not on the poll saying with him, the Republicans “would have won in a landslide.” Not even his personal deputy, Vice President J.D. Vance (who has attributed the loss largely to the struggle in Iran), takes his principal critical on that declare.
Serbia. Israel. Brazil. United States. There are classes from these 4 international locations that can serve us in Nigeria as we put together for the 2027 normal election. Let’s begin with Brazil the place no presidential candidate had ever come from behind to win a runoff ballot because the nation returned to direct elections in 1989. Instructively, Lula misplaced the primary spherical with 45 % to Senator Flavio Bolnosaro’s 47 %, however he received the run-off with 51.79 % of complete votes. The defeated Bolsonaro has refused to concede, asking the courts to annul the consequence as a result of voting was prolonged by two hours. He appears to be clutching at straws. Not solely did Bolnosaro’s personal celebration be a part of the decision for that extension on the time, nevertheless it has additionally been established that these two hours permitted by the Supreme Court produced solely about 34,000 ballots. Besides, Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party has recognised the end result of the election and accepted Lula’s victory. Bolsonaro has taken refuge within the U.S.
Most political pundits have credited Lula’s victory to the facility of social media. One of his supporters, André Janones, a 42-year-old congressman, began and ran a WhatsApp group known as ‘Lula’s Army’. From 60,000 followers after the primary spherical, the aggressive mobilization that adopted ballooned the membership to just about 11 million. Lula himself was persuaded to get a smartphone (reportedly he by no means had a cell phone of his personal till the election), and he started taking selfies at rallies. In his victory speech, Lula praised Janones whom he described as “our general” who was “raising the morale of our troops every day.” But we should learn that story appropriately. The actual marketing campaign work was performed offline. Supporters had been requested to record mates and family they may persuade or get to the polls, with particular consideration to youngsters and other people above 70, for whom voting is non-obligatory. Lula additionally had the benefit of incumbency whereas Bolsonaro scored an personal purpose. In the ultimate tv debate on 23 October, he known as the president ‘nine fingers’, a taunt in regards to the finger Lula misplaced in a manufacturing facility accident as a younger metalworker. Although Bolsonaro apologised on air, many undecided voters reportedly didn’t take it properly.
In Serbia, following the collapse of the roof of a preferred prepare station in November 2024, killing no fewer than 15 individuals, college students took to the road, accusing the federal government of President Vucic of nepotism, corruption and negligence. Calls for a clear investigation led to months of sit-ins, blockades and marches led by college students, after which a requirement for snap elections. When that demand was met, apparently as a result of some highly effective individuals misinterpret the room, the scholars drew up an inventory of 250 candidates to contest in opposition to the ruling celebration. Those candidates embody lecturers, civil society activists, and different professionals with no prior involvement in politics (and none is a scholar). With a tacit endorsement of the scholars, a number of main opposition events selected to not run and urged their supporters to again them. At the tip, the candidates on what turned referred to as the ‘Student List’ took about 53% of the vote, and Vučić conceded on the election evening even earlier than all of the votes had been in.
Perhaps no person has captured what occurred in Serbia as succinctly as Giorgio Fruscione, a Research Fellow on the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI). “It is a historic achievement that highlights the value of democracy at a time when European streets are in turmoil, making the (Serbian) students a role model for the rest of the continent too,” says Fruscione. “I cannot think of anything similar anywhere in the world–a group of young people, unknown to most, with no party structures, no money and no leadership, managed effectively to bring down an autocrat who controlled all the media, the police and criminal networks, and had almost unlimited financial resources at his disposal. All this without a single act of violence, in a country whose reputation has often been associated with violence and political instability.”
Meanwhile, Israel continues to be reeling from the end result of its election that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been struggling to discredit. The ruling bloc–made up of his Likud celebration, ultra-Orthodox and a far-right supremacist faction–received 53 seats whereas the opposition bloc, led by a former army normal, Gadi Eisenkot, received 48. Ordinarily, the bulk required to type authorities within the 120-seat parliament is 61 however each leaders have pledged to not take care of the 19 members from the Arab events. President Isaac Herzog begins consultations this week and should identify a candidate to type the federal government. Failure might ship Israelis again to the polls. About one in 5 Israeli residents is Arab. They voted in numbers by no means seen earlier than, and the system counted these votes. The problem is that the lads who require these seats don’t need to be seen as needing them.
Overall, these are 4 international locations with 4 totally different programs, and none of them is ideal. But we will be taught from them. The first lesson is in regards to the efficacy of a powerful opposition. I spent the 2010/2011 tutorial session as a Fellow on the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard researching why ruling events so hardly ever lose elections. I discovered that within the two previous many years, they received 96 % of aggressive presidential elections the world over, and the principle cause was a divided opposition. Serbia presents a textbook case for that time: a number of events stepped apart to again the ‘Students List’ and, within the course of, rewrote the democratic historical past of their nation.
In Nigeria, those that need to unseat the incumbent president within the coming 2027 normal election can’t hold negotiating into January and anticipate to be taken significantly. Especially when presenting a united entrance doesn’t even assure success. In Brazil, most of the eradicated right-wing candidates rallied behind Bolsonaro after the primary spherical which he received, and the principle opposition candidate nonetheless misplaced on the finish. But there’s additionally a lesson for these in energy in Nigeria. To think about invincibility is to disregard the teachings of modern historical past. Vucic had the benefits of workplace in Serbia, and he was upended by college students; Netanyahu’s coalition misplaced its majority in Israel and Trump is now successfully a lame duck American president with Tuesday’s electoral clear sweep by the Democratic Party.
This brings me to a different lesson. Serbian voter turn-out was almost 69 %. Young individuals, African Americans, Latinos exercised their franchise in giant numbers throughout the U.S. on Tuesday. In Israel, Arab voters moved from about 53 % to about 80 % and upended the arithmetic of a nation. All these are in sharp distinction to what occurs in Nigeria, the place solely about 27 % of registered voters participated in 2023. Yet, an election will be misplaced by those that keep at house as absolutely as by those that are ‘rigged out’.
Then, the third lesson. Israel ought to remind us that voters can hand politicians a consequence no person deliberate for. Under Section 134 of the Constitution, a presidential candidate wants the best quantity of votes and not less than 25 % in not less than 24 states. If no person achieves that, there’s a second election, one thing Nigeria has by no means had. But as we now have seen in Brazil, Serbia and Israel, there’s at all times a primary time for all the pieces. Another lesson, particularly from the American election is that large cash doesn’t at all times translate to electoral victories. Although each events spent billions of {dollars}, the Republican candidates in extremely aggressive races had extraordinary help from rich donors, together with from Elon Musk who reportedly dished out about $450 million! The level was made most eloquently by Ms Keisha Lance Bottoms. Addressing supporters after overcoming billionaire Rick Jackson to change into Georgia’s first elected feminine governor and the primary Black governor within the state’s historical past, Bottoms stated: “In big and small ways, you’ve shown that no amount of money will ever, never ever, ever overcome the power of the people.”
Let me now make the purpose that goes to the guts of what I wrote final week. Serbian residents who feared fraud had been vigilant as observers with out resorting to violence. All the threats from American politicians earlier than Tuesday had been about going to court docket. Section 60(3) of the Electoral Act 2026 now requires presiding officers to transmit polling unit outcomes to the IReV portal, though the guide Form EC8A turns into the first supply the place there’s ‘communication failure’. Since tribunals should now obtain IReV information in proof, a celebration that’s actually apprehensive about rigging needs to be coaching brokers for each polling unit and securing its copy of each consequence sheet. It shouldn’t be telling supporters to deliver kerosene.
The ultimate level: If there’s something that the elections in Serbia, Brazil, Israel and United States have taught us, it’s that when the individuals are decided to make a change, nothing can cease them.
Belt and Road within the Age of AI
The 2026 version of the Media Cooperation Forum on Belt and Road is at present being held in Fuzhou, Fujian Province of China with the theme, ‘Pursuing Common Understandings and Aspirations: A Decade of Belt and Road Media Cooperation’. The 4th Council Meeting of the Belt and Road News Network (BRNN) can even be convened on the sidelines to assessment the BRNN’s work report (2024-2026), promote the third Silk Road News Awards, and admit new Council members. Ordinarily, I needs to be in China attending each classes as one of the 43 Council members. But as a result of the invitation got here after I had dedicated myself to this trip, I needed to politely clarify my absence. Asked to ship a video message, under is the textual content of my presentation for the 4th BRNN Council assembly.
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In April 2019, I sat within the convention corridor of People’s Daily in Beijing as one of the founding members of Belt and Road News Network (BRNN) Council. At the time, the community had 182 member organisations. Today BRNN has attracted 323 media retailers from 117 international locations worldwide. What that progress reveals most eloquently is that in a loud and divided world, critical media organisations need to discuss to at least one one other. That maybe explains why dialogue amongst our media nonetheless issues. When our newsrooms converse instantly, we will report on our totally different societies with context and nuance. Above all, we will report precisely, and accuracy stays the one forex of our occupation.
In the age of disinformation, that’s no small factor. THISDAY newspapers in Nigeria the place I work and our sister organisation, ARISE Television, have given us a direct line to colleagues throughout Asia, Europe, Latin America and the remaining of Africa. These media retailers have additionally given us entry to content material and contacts which have deepened our protection of a relationship that now touches virtually each sector of the Nigerian economic system.
Looking forward, I’ve three expectations. One, we want extra trade in each instructions, of journalists, tales and views, in order that African voices are heard in Beijing as clearly as Chinese voices are heard in Nigeria and the remaining of Africa. Two, we want sensible cooperation on the instruments reshaping our business, together with the accountable use of synthetic intelligence in newsrooms. Three, we want the arrogance to inform full tales, in phrases of the difficulties in addition to the successes. At the tip of the day, credibility is what’s going to make the Belt and Road story plausible to sceptical audiences.
What is outstanding in regards to the rising rise of China, particularly in Africa, is that improvement will be measured in essential infrastructure like roads, railways and ports. Nigerians see this within the Lagos–Ibadan railway and the Lekki Deep Sea Port. Since 1st May this 12 months, China has granted zero-tariff entry to all 53 African international locations with which it has diplomatic relations, Nigeria included. At a time when many are elevating limitations, that could be a sensible argument for openness, and the shared prosperity that openness makes doable.
This 12 months marks the seventieth anniversary of diplomatic relations between China and Africa. It can be the China–Africa Year of People-to-People Exchanges. No trade between peoples lasts longer than the one carried out by way of sincere journalism. That stays our frequent accountability. Thank you very a lot for listening as I look ahead to becoming a member of you subsequent 12 months.
• You can observe me on my X deal with, @Olusegunverdict and on www.olusegunadeniyi.com
