The 2027 gubernatorial election in Adamawa State is shaping as much as be one of the intriguing within the state’s historical past.
The impending exit of Governor Ahmadu Fintiri, whose second time period ends subsequent May, and the conflicting interests of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and the National Security Adviser (NSA) Nuhu Ribadu, in addition to different native elements, have created a dynamic through which no get together holds a visual benefit as marketing campaign actions get underway.
In the 2023 common elections, Mr Fintiri and Atiku mixed their forces below the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to beat the All Progressives Congress (APC).
The political panorama has since shifted dramatically. Not solely have these two allies parted methods, however different main realignments have additionally occurred throughout the state.
The political image is such that six candidates now imagine they’ll win the governorship election.
The energy dynamics
Governor Fintiri defected to the APC in February. Combining his pressure with that of Mr Ribadu has strengthened the federal ruling get together within the state it misplaced in 2019, when Mr Fintiri defeated the incumbent Jibrilla Bindow with a margin of over 40,000 votes within the governorship election.
Meanwhile, Atiku’s native and nationwide clout means he stays a formidable pressure in his house state. Also, his presidential ambition affords a powerful rallying cry that can profit the African Democratic Congress (ADC) candidate.
However, previous elections show that Adamawa voters don’t all the time take heed to godfathers in state-level politics. Consequently, having Mr Fintiri, Atiku, or Mr Ribadu behind a candidate might not assure victory within the 2027 governorship race.
Volatile politics
Adamawa State has a protracted historical past of political volatility, largely pushed by its multi-ethnic composition. This was seen properly earlier than the creation of the present state construction.
During the transition to the Second Republic, below the previous Gongola State, which comprised present-day Adamawa and Taraba states, the 5 registered political events, NPN, GNPP, PRP, NPP, and UPN, fiercely contested the 1979 gubernatorial election.
Abubakar Barde of the GNPP received the election to develop into the state’s first government governor. However, Bamanga Tukur of the NPN defeated him within the 1983 election, earlier than Mr Tukur’s tenure was minimize quick by the 1983 navy coup.
The political volatility was once more on full show below the Ibrahim Babangida regime’s transition programme to the aborted Third Republic.
In the Social Democratic Party (SDP) gubernatorial primaries, the competition between Atiku and the late Bala Takaya was so fierce that the navy junta cancelled it and disqualified the 2 males from the repeat train.
The SDP ultimately nominated Boss Mustapha, however inner get together divisions within the SDP helped the late Saleh Michika of the rival National Republican Convention (NRC) to win the 1991 governorship election.
Split-ticket voting can also be a recurring theme within the state.
In 1979, whereas the NPN received the presidential election, in Gongola State, the GNPP secured the governorship. Similarly, in 1993, Moshood Abiola of the SDP received the presidential election within the state, when Adamawa was ruled by Mr Michika of the NRC.
In the Fourth Republic, Boni Haruna accomplished two successive phrases (1999–2007) after Atiku, who headed their profitable ticket, was chosen as vice-presidential candidate by Olusegun Obasanjo.
However, the 2007 election triggered one other spherical of intense political rivalry. Murtala Nyako of the PDP was declared the winner, however the Election Petition Appeal Tribunal voided his election in February 2008 over the exclusion of some opposition candidates.
Mr Nyako received the next re-run in April 2008, however his second time period was stricken by instability, finally resulting in his impeachment in July 2014.
Following Mr Nyako’s elimination, the then Speaker of the State House of Assembly, Mr Fintiri, assumed workplace as performing governor. But his personal interim tenure was additionally minimize quick when the Federal High Court dominated that Deputy Governor Bala Ngilari’s earlier resignation was invalid, paving the best way for Mr Ngilari to serve out the rest of Mr Nyako’s tenure.
In 2015, Mr Bindow received the governorship ballot below the APC. He served just one time period, as he was defeated in 2019 by Mr Fintiri of the PDP, who went on to safe a second time period.
The candidates and the crises
Backed by federal energy, ruling-party assets, and the newly absorbed state government equipment following Mr Fintiri’s defection, analysts see the APC governorship candidate, Tijjani Galadima, because the frontrunner.
A scion of the aristocratic Galadima of Adamawa household, the APC candidate is an skilled technocrat and public administrator.
He studied Agriculture at Ahmadu Bello University (ABU), Zaria, and holds a grasp’s diploma in Banking and Finance from the University of Ibadan.
He beforehand served because the Executive Secretary and CEO of the Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF), the place he directed main human capital growth initiatives and tertiary scholarship programmes.
Mr Galadima is campaigning on the “Adamawa Rising Agenda.” His marketing campaign focuses on sustaining the infrastructure initiatives of the Fintiri administration, enhancing public-sector transparency, leveraging stable minerals, campaigning for native agriculture to enter industrial worth chains, and advancing human capital.
His marketing campaign additionally guarantees to consolidate urban-rural highway community growth, double crop yields by agro-industrialisation, improve common healthcare entry, present solar-powered clear vitality, and keep free secondary schooling.
However, his candidature faces vital challenges.
A outstanding rival, Abdulrahman Haske, defected from the APC after disputing the end result of the first. He is now the candidate of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM).
Mr Haske is an influential businessman. Educated on the American University of Nigeria (AUN) and Manchester Business School, he serves because the Group Managing Director of AA&R Investment Group.
His conglomerate holds main interests in oil exploration (by way of Etihad Oilfield Services and Mars E&P), large-scale agriculture (H&W Rice Mill), ICT, and logistics. He additionally holds the normal title of ‘Ciroman Ganye’ within the state.
Three State House of Assembly members representing the Yola South, Nasarawo Binyeri, and Numan constituencies joined his defection prepare and likewise received APM tickets for reelection.
Mr Haske’s platform leverages sturdy youth attraction, intensive company publicity, and private-sector options.
His core profile focuses on industrialising Adamawa’s agricultural sector and instilling company effectivity into public administration.
The emergence of Mr Haske because the APM flagbearer and his number of Safriel Glah, a retired common supervisor at NNPC Limited, as working mate make the get together a severe platform.
The ADC
The ADC candidate, Hamman Modibbo, is a public finance administrator and pioneer director and chief government officer of the Nigerian Financial Intelligence Unit (NFIU).
He holds a Master of Science diploma in International Business from the University of Salford, Manchester, and a Bachelor of Arts diploma (B.A. Hons) in History from the University of Maiduguri.
As the primary head of the NFIU as an unbiased physique, Mr Modibbo led a transition staff that reworked the small unit into an company with the vital accountability of receiving, analysing and sharing monetary intelligence with related companies inside and outdoors the nation.
Mr Modibbo bases his marketing campaign on transparency, monetary self-discipline, institutional reforms, and group and border safety.
However, his candidacy can also be embroiled in an intra-party dispute. Umar Suleiman, former managing director of the Nigerian Ports Authority and former diplomat, had received the ADC major election in May, defeating Mr Modibbo.
Mr Suleiman insists he stays the genuine candidate and has secured court docket injunctions towards the get together substituting him.
Despite these authorized boundaries, ADC nationwide leaders, alongside presidential candidate Atiku, endorsed Mr Modibbo in August, sparking a full-blown factional battle over the ticket.
Consequently, whereas Mr Suleiman is actively contesting his substitution in court docket, the get together’s nationwide management continues to again Mr Modibbo.
Adding to the rift, Muhammad Shuwa is the candidate backed by the Nafiu Bala faction of the ADC, bringing to a few the candidates claiming the ADC ticket within the state.
The NDC, LP and PDP
The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Aishatu Ahmed, popularly generally known as Binani, is a formidable politician in Adamawa.
Mrs Ahmed, a former senator, is in style for her grassroots community and micro-empowerment initiatives. She promotes grassroots social welfare, healthcare entry, and financial inclusion for girls and micro-entrepreneurs throughout the state.
A civil engineer by coaching and former Member of the House of Representatives (Yola North/Yola South/Girei), the girl recognized throughout the state as Binani represented the Adamawa Central District within the Senate from 2019–2023.
She was the APC governorship candidate in 2023 and got here below the highlight when she was controversially declared the winner by a rogue electoral official.
Opponents additionally accused her of electoral fraud within the NDC get together major.
Another candidate, Ishaku Abbo, represented the Adamawa North District within the Senate in 2019-2023, and returned to the seat in 2023 till his election was voided by the courts. An outspoken political determine, Mr Abbo has a powerful youth following throughout Northern Adamawa.
Flying the Labour Party (LP) banner, Mr Abbo brings a populist strategy to the marketing campaign path.
His political technique focuses on participating younger voters, championing social justice reform, growing rural infrastructure, and driving grassroots mobilisation throughout the northern senatorial zone.
Maurice Vunobolki, the candidate of the Nyesom Wike-backed Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), is a chartered accountant, monetary administration professional, and worldwide growth advisor.
He beforehand labored with foreign-assisted growth initiatives, public procurement frameworks, and native authorities infrastructure initiatives in Northern Nigeria.
However, Mr Vunobolki faces an inner problem from Caleb Myebangara of the Tanimu Turaki-led PDP faction.
Mr Myebangara, an expert banker, has absolutely resumed his marketing campaign whereas awaiting the end result of the Tanimu Turaki-led PDP case earlier than the Court of Appeal in Abuja.
How the election might be fought and received – Analysts
Mahdi Abba, head of the Department of Political Science at Modibbo Adama University, Yola, famous that the key political events every have distinct aggressive benefits, setting the stage for a intently fought race.
According to Mr Abba, the APC candidate advantages from the formidable energy of incumbency, backed by each state and federal authorities equipment and supported by a sturdy get together construction and devoted loyalists. He stated Mr Galadima stays a powerful contender for victory.
He additionally acknowledged that the ADC candidate, Mr Modibbo, is positioned to capitalise on the substantial political clout of the previous vp.
“Historical voting trends in the state demonstrate a strong correlation between Atiku’s party affiliation and gubernatorial success—evidenced by APC’s victory in 2015 when he was a member, followed by PDP’s victories in 2019 and 2023 after his return to the party. With Atiku now backing the ADC, the party is set to make a significant impact”, Mr Abba stated.
On Mrs Ahmed, Mr Abba stated the NDC candidate is a seasoned politician with a deeply rooted grassroots community, bringing sturdy electoral momentum to the get together in Adamawa State.
READ ALSO: INEC to display voter register, distribute PVCs in 168 Taraba wards
“Her track record of successful campaigns for the House of Representatives and the Senate—particularly her solid base in metropolitan Adamawa—underscores her strong appeal among the electorate”, the political scientist stated.
The PDP stands to achieve a strategic benefit if ethno-religious dynamics form the election.
According to Mr Abba, as a result of the APC, NDC, ADC, and APM candidates are all Muslim Fulanis, a cut up of their shared voter base may go to the PDP candidate’s benefit
“Also, the Labour Party candidate instructions vital regional recognition, notably inside his house zone comprising Mubi North, Mubi South, Maiha, Madagali, and Michika.
Having secured election victories twice from this district, his localised stronghold will play a decisive function if ethno-religious sentiments—a traditionally widespread characteristic in Adamawa State politics—come to the fore”, Mr Abba stated.
Discover extra from Premium Times Nigeria
Subscribe to get the newest posts despatched to your e-mail.
